Future material demand for automotive lithium-based batteries

Title	Future material demand for automotive lithium-based batteries
Authors	Chengjian Xu, Qiang Dai, Linda Gaines, Mingming Hu, Arnold Tukker, Bernhard Steubing
Magazine	Communications Materials
Date	12/09/2020
DOI	10.1038/s43246-020-00095-x
Introduction	The global transition towards electric vehicles is crucial for mitigating climate change. This study quantifies the projected demand for essential battery materials, accounting for anticipated growth in the electric vehicle fleet, advancements in battery chemistry, and the implementation of second-use and recycling strategies for electric vehicle batteries. Our analysis indicates that in a scenario dominated by lithium nickel cobalt manganese oxide batteries, material demand for lithium is estimated to rise by factors of 18–20, cobalt by 17–19, nickel by 28–31, and most other materials by 15–20 between 2020 and 2050. This necessitates a substantial expansion of lithium, cobalt, and nickel supply chains and likely new resource identification. Significant uncertainties persist, primarily concerning the expansion of the electric vehicle fleet and per-vehicle battery capacity needs. Adoption of alternative battery chemistries, such as lithium iron phosphate or emerging lithium-sulphur and lithium-air batteries, would considerably reduce the demand for cobalt and nickel. While closed-loop recycling currently plays a minor role, its importance in decreasing primary material demand is expected to grow until 2050. However, advancements in recycling technologies are essential for the economic recovery of battery-grade materials from end-of-life batteries. Furthermore, the second-use of electric vehicle batteries postpones the potential for recycling.
Quote	Chengjian Xu, Qiang Dai and Linda Gaines et al. Future material demand for automotive lithium-based batteries. Commun Mater. 2020. Vol. 1(1). DOI: 10.1038/s43246-020-00095-x
Element	Lithium (Li) , Cobalt (Co) , Nickel (Ni) , Manganese (Mn) , Sulfur (S)
Industry	Automotive , Energy Storage & Batteries